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| User Info | Pending Home Sales: Watch The Birdie! in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1081-P....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-06-02 10:29:54
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Chummin Posts: 3854 Incept: 2008-03-30 
Billfishville
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Right on! Plus I saw a memo saying they were looking to show any and all PENDING to juice the number even though they knew a actual would NEVER even be a percentage of this. What a joke!!!
---------- I'm a lead farmer mother ****er! ============= Only way to stop the bezzle is to go Galt and starve the beast! =============
2009-06-02 10:34:01
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Watermelon Posts: 674 Incept: 2007-12-23
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Quote:At $4.75% a $100,000 financed amount for 30 years produces a P&I of $519.59. That same payment at a rate of 5.75% produces a financed amount of $89,462.75... The 5.75% produces a financed amount of $89,462.75? A typo I guess. 
2009-06-02 10:37:01
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Tdray Posts: 115 Incept: 2008-12-11
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"No. A median-income family can afford a home costing $180,000; the 3:1 ratio is not off the financed amount, it is off the purchase price." Too aggressive in my book. Assume one of them will lose a job in six months, lowering the real number to $90K.
2009-06-02 10:38:41
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Uh, no, its not..... Got HP12c? ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-06-02 10:38:58
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Watermelon Posts: 674 Incept: 2007-12-23
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I thought you were comparing 2 monthly payment of P&I.... never mind. Thanks!
2009-06-02 10:41:27
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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No, I was comparing what the same payment implies about price, and since nearly everyone who buys a house in fact buys a PAYMENT, anyone who bought at the maximum they could qual for instantaneously loses the deal if they did not lock. A huge percentage of would-be buyers did not lock in April and May due to the jawboning of the government and The Fed that they would "drive down rates" and "manage rates". Everyone of these people got ****ed as rates didn't creep up - they skyrocketed in an uncontrolled fashion and there is nothing you could do about it. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-06-02 10:43:19
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Financeguy Posts: 4946 Incept: 2007-08-10
Charlotte Online
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Frankly Baghdad Bob had more credibility than most of these numbers I have been watching the last several months. This pump and dump is giving the original credit bubble fraud a run for it's money at this point....
---------- "Granted, if you are not into Barbara Streisand and creme brulee, South Beach could be a tad lonely." Eleua
2009-06-02 10:43:44
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Mortgageguymn Posts: 182 Incept: 2009-03-09 
North Coast
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Gen, Some of you statements are a little overdone. We can still (gladly, easily) do an assumable FHA 30 year fixed @ 5.00% with 1% origination fee + 3/4 point (which the seller can "pay"). That requires only 3.5% down payment - all of which can be a gift. But your general point is true - rising rates will stifle buying. As will the phase out of the $8k tax credit (if it's not extended). At some point, all of these schemes to pull demand forward will go away. The "pending sales" most likely to never close are condos - where even a well qualified buyer can't get financing once the owner-occupancy ratio falls too low (due to foreclosures and units being rented out). Anyone who buys a condo now needs to have their head examined. Just because it's dropped 50% doesn't mean it won't drop another 50%, barring a federal mandate for looser lending. ---------- "Neither a borrower nor a lender be." - Harold Hecuba
2009-06-02 10:51:06
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Widgeon Posts: 6526 Incept: 2007-08-30
OK Online
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Oh Oh Mortgage ... Don't get KD started on the gifting bit and the complete inadequacy of the downpayment requirements. FYI, I and most all the TF "community" see this exactly as KD does and frequently describes.
2009-06-02 11:20:45
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Bobo Posts: 730 Incept: 2008-04-01
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Leaving out the inventory numbers by the NAR and the price trends makes any such "index" kind of silly. What's the point if inventory is rising and prices are dropping. Gen is spot on, the 25% of income argument to justify a house nearly 5x income is dangerous. I bet Suzanne researched that, barf!
2009-06-02 11:21:03
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Moonoverseattle Posts: 2776 Incept: 2008-02-02
MOTEL 6
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still need jobs - to buy. I am continuing to see carnage in the job market. The march to 25% continues
---------- A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury.
2009-06-02 11:23:04
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Yes, Mortgage, I realize that the FHA still permits fraud on the HUD-1 and explicitly endorses it via so-called "gifts" and so-called "seller contributions". It is my opinion that everyone, including the mortgage brokers, involved in any of those transactions should get ****d every day for 20 years courtesy of Bubba in the Federal Pen, as such "trnasactions" serve to intentionally overstate the value of the house and therefore intentionally distort the marketplace, and are undertaken to disadvantage others while advantaging the participants through this intentional misdirection - otherwise called FRAUD. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-06-02 11:23:40
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Mortgageguymn Posts: 182 Incept: 2009-03-09
North Coast
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I see almost everything exactly the way KD does. I'm about 85% cash.
---------- "Neither a borrower nor a lender be." - Harold Hecuba
2009-06-02 11:25:28
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Yaldor Posts: 1430 Incept: 2008-05-17
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Right on !! watch for June numbers and the cancellations ---------- For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 . For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
2009-06-02 11:27:47
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Tacoflavored Posts: 105 Incept: 2007-09-07
Tortilla Flats
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I occasionally check the Mortgage Broker forums to see what schemes they're working on to return to the glory days of zero-down financing (USDA loans are the flavor of the month), and I ran across this quote from today: ..of course pricing sux compared to where we were 10 days ago. I have 6 pre-approved buyers that just got knocked out of buying due to rates Another housing anecdote - Starting in April, many SFH in my area that were priced at or below 3.5 median household income were going to "PENDING" status in the first week after listing. Several weeks later, they would reappear as "AVAILABLE" on the MLS. I asked an agent from a large agency about this and he said about 50% of their pending contracts were falling through, well above the norm. He was encountering problems with domino chains of contract contingencies, where Buyer A needs to sell their home to Buyer B before purchasing, and Buyer B needs to sell their home to Buyer C, etc,etc. Any hiccup in the chain and all the deals fall apart. Last modified:
2009-06-02 11:32:38 by tacoflavored
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Sondog Posts: 58 Incept: 2009-05-18
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I'm about 70% water. (Sorry, couldn't resist)
2009-06-02 11:33:16
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Plymster Posts: 399 Incept: 2007-09-19
Seattle, Washington Online
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Also, according to the Seattle Bubble (which follows this stuff like a hawk), the NWMLS has been changing the meaning of "Pending Sales" to include: Short Sales http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2009/05/31.... Pending Inspection http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2009/05/11.... These two changes can pump pending sales up in the NWMLS between 10-15% YOY. I can only assume this is a national change, and not just a regional one. Last modified:
2009-06-02 11:37:35 by plymster
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Trappped Posts: 73 Incept: 2009-02-13 Banned
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What kills me about these home sales data, (ephasis on sales), whether it be new, existing, pending, whatever.....is they never tell you what prices are, or really not too much focus is given. For every sale there is obviously a seller. And I bet a lot of the sales are forced. Kinda like GM stock trading 300 mill/day last few days. Yeah, volume is great, but the stock is/was worthless.
2009-06-02 11:37:55
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Mortgageguymn Posts: 182 Incept: 2009-03-09
North Coast
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Here's the thing about gifts on FHA loans: People who can get them generally come from the 50% of families that have at least two nickels to rub together. The progeny of such families tend to be at least a little bit educated about making sure they have the means to fix the water heater should it go kaputt. And they can often go back to the well (the family) to mooch a little more in a pinch. Which is better than immediately going belly up on a gov't-insured loan. So they're not as good as people who have saved 20% down, but at least they're not as bad as people who want 0% down - whether from a (now defunct) seller-funded downpayment assistance scheme or local government down payment assistance "program". If down payment requirements are increased, I'd have no problem with that. I usually enjoy saying "no" more than saying "yes". Besides, being ****d in prison couldn't be any worse than being married. ---------- "Neither a borrower nor a lender be." - Harold Hecuba
2009-06-02 11:38:28
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Kuhio Posts: 206 Incept: 2008-12-31
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Quote:demand either a 10% price concession from the seller (unlikely to be granted) or your deal blows up With the number of foreclosures sitting out there just waiting for the damn to burst, I think we'll see price declines much greater than 10%. Of course, by that time we'll be caught in a vicious cycle: 1. Bank assets decline, requiring further bailouts which cause interest rates to climb. (Foreign lending and/or Fed printing will cause yields to increase.) 2. Higher interest rates cause further price declines in real estate values. Repeat step #1. This ladder down approach is the only way we will reach an equilibrium in housing costs: a mix of income based prices (the age old 3:1 ratio) + market set interest rates based on inflation & repayment risk. Ben and T3 can try and fight the market, but it's too big for the Fed or UST. Global capital does NOT have to be invested in the USA. As the world wakes up to the fact that Ts are not a risk free investment, capital will look for the exit. That's when the SHTF.
2009-06-02 11:38:39
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Eleua Posts: 9907 Incept: 2007-07-05
N 47.72/ W 122.55
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At some point in the future, I would imagine that the housing market will be liquid only in a true "cash" market. I have no idea how long that lasts, but to get deeds to move in a environment with no credit, only those with Ben Franklins will be able to buy property. There really are not that many people out there with two nickles to rub together. We still need bona-fide seller capitulation and then bank-REO capitulation. We also need a bond market dislocation (double digit short term rates) to even start discussing a bottom. Right now, most of the buyers are knife catchers. ---------- http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/
2009-06-02 11:43:23
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Curbyourrisk Posts: 1891 Incept: 2008-08-19 Long Island, New York
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This is really getting scary, ---------- Hopium: hope filled delirium preached by the White House and Swallowed whole by the American Sheeple. Why is Franklin Raines a free man? "We saved the world from disaster" - Ben Bernanke - Jackson Hole 08/21/2009 
2009-06-02 11:45:45
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Aja Posts: 2209 Incept: 2008-03-19
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Their little booklet's cover will now be revised to show that giant house which was hanging precariously over the little family has now crashed down to squish them.
2009-06-02 11:47:20
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Koaj Posts: 957 Incept: 2009-02-03
NJ
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we put a bid in on a house this past week (i didnt want to...wife is at her wits end with me) told our agent we want the sellers to pay any points associated to get us back to 5% since they hadnt adjusted their price to reflect new rates will be 6 months before sellers get this and lower prices unfortunately
2009-06-02 11:51:46
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